How We Calculate

Our transparent methodology for estimating newsletter value. We combine industry benchmarks with your specific metrics to provide accurate valuations.

Three-Tier Valuation

We calculate value from three sources, in order of reliability:

Verified Revenue (Most Reliable)

Annual = Paid Subs × Price × 12 × 87%

The 13% fee accounts for Substack (10%) + Stripe (~3%) processing. This is real revenue you can verify in your dashboard.

Ad Potential (Estimated Range)

Monthly = Opens × CPM × Ad Slots × Sponsored Posts

We show LOW-HIGH ranges based on your newsletter size tier. Larger newsletters can monetize more posts and command premium CPMs.

Newsletters under 25K subscribers rarely sell ads directly. Estimates assume minimal sponsorship activity.

Sale Value (If You Sold Today)

Sale Price = Annual Revenue × 1.5-4×

Based on actual newsletter acquisitions. Morning Brew sold for ~4× revenue; The Hustle for ~2.5×. Most newsletters fall in this range.

Factor Breakdown

1Sponsorship Tiers by Size

Larger newsletters can monetize more posts per month and have multiple ad slots per email. They also command premium CPM rates.

<25K subs

1 posts/mo1 slots0.5× CPMRarely sell ads directly

25K-100K subs

2 posts/mo1 slots0.8× CPM

100K-500K subs

4 posts/mo1.5 slots1× CPM

500K-1M subs

8 posts/mo2 slots1.2× CPM

1M+ subs

15 posts/mo2.5 slots1.5× CPM

2CPM Rates by Category

Base CPM ranges before size multipliers. Finance and business newsletters typically command higher rates due to advertiser demand.

Crypto$50-$140

Business$50-$100

Marketing$38-$98

Finance$35-$80

Tech$35-$70

Lifestyle$25-$70

Other$25-$70

3Verified Revenue Calculation

If you have paid subscribers, we calculate actual revenue after platform fees (87% net).

Net Annual = Paid Subs × Price × 12 × 87%

Example: 500 paid subscribers at $10/month = $52,200/year net

4Sale Value Multiples

Based on actual newsletter acquisitions:

Sale Price = Annual Revenue × 1.5-4×

• Morning Brew: $75M at ~4× annual revenue

• The Hustle: $27M at ~2.5× annual revenue

Example: 100K Business Newsletter

100,000 subscribers in Business with 40% open rate

Opens: 100,000 × 40% = 40,000

CPM range: $50-$100 (business)

Posts/month: 4 (large tier)

Ad slots: 1.5 per post

Monthly: 40 × $50-$100 × 1.5 × 4 = $12K-$24K

Annual: $144K - $288K sponsorship potential

// V2 Valuation: Three-tier system with honest ranges

// Tier 1: Verified Revenue
function calculateVerifiedRevenue(paidSubs, monthlyPrice) {
  const PLATFORM_FEE = 0.13 // 10% Substack + 3% Stripe
  return paidSubs * monthlyPrice * 12 * (1 - PLATFORM_FEE)
}

// Tier 2: Ad Potential (size-based tiers)
const SPONSORSHIP_TIERS = {
  small:   { subs: '<25K',    posts: 1,  slots: 1,   cpm: 0.5 },
  medium:  { subs: '25K-100K', posts: 2,  slots: 1,   cpm: 0.8 },
  large:   { subs: '100K-500K', posts: 4, slots: 1.5, cpm: 1.0 },
  premium: { subs: '500K-1M',  posts: 8,  slots: 2,   cpm: 1.2 },
  elite:   { subs: '1M+',      posts: 15, slots: 2.5, cpm: 1.5 },
}

function calculateAdPotential(subscribers, openRate, categoryCPM) {
  const tier = getSponsorshipTier(subscribers)
  const opens = subscribers * (openRate / 100)

  // CPM adjusted by tier multiplier
  const cpmRange = {
    low: categoryCPM.low * tier.cpm,
    high: categoryCPM.high * tier.cpm,
  }

  // Monthly ad potential = opens × CPM × slots × posts
  const monthlyLow = (opens / 1000) * cpmRange.low * tier.slots * tier.posts
  const monthlyHigh = (opens / 1000) * cpmRange.high * tier.slots * tier.posts

  return { monthlyLow, monthlyHigh, annualLow: monthlyLow * 12, annualHigh: monthlyHigh * 12 }
}

// Tier 3: Sale Value
const SALE_MULTIPLES = { low: 1.5, high: 4.0 }

function calculateSaleValue(annualRevenue) {
  return {
    low: annualRevenue * SALE_MULTIPLES.low,
    high: annualRevenue * SALE_MULTIPLES.high,
  }
}

// Example: Morning Brew (4M subs, business, 40% open)
// - Opens: 1,600,000
// - CPM: $75-$150 (business × 1.5 elite multiplier)
// - Posts: 15/month, Slots: 2.5
// - Monthly: $4.5M - $9M
// - Annual: $54M - $108M (actual revenue ~$70M ✓)

This shows the core valuation logic. Larger newsletters can monetize more posts per month and command premium CPM rates.

Data Sources

Our rates are synthesized from multiple industry sources to ensure accuracy. No single authoritative source exists, so we cross-reference multiple data points.